Learnings from the lockdown

It's one thing to read about a crisis, and another to live through it.

Though there has been no shortage of crises in my lifetime (multiple wars, 9/11, SARS, even the current war in Ukraine), they were previously all remote phenomena, far removed from my personal day-to-day life. The Shanghai lockdown, though barely a noteworthy news item on a global level, gave me the first-hand experience that I didn't know I lacked.

I've reflected a bit in the weeks since the lockdown lifted, and I'll share some of my thoughts here.

People are terrible at predicting the worst case scenario

Ray Dalio alluded to this a lot in his new book, The Changing World Order, and I've found it to be true during the microcosm of the lockdown. People who have only lived through good times believe deep down that these good times are not only normal, but also will continue indefinitely. No one - including myself - thought that the lockdown would last a full two months. After all, even full-fledged quarantines last just 14 weeks, so it was inconceivable that Shanghai, one of the most important cities in the world, would essentially stop operating for 60 days.

People thought the government would at least provide enough food and necessities. This also proved to be false, as it turned out that citizens instead needed to rely on community group buying to address food shortages. Which leads me to my next point.

A crisis brings out the good in people

The citizens of Shanghai were their own heroes. I had friends tell me about neighbors who had never spoken to them begin to share food - and precious information on where to get more food - and various supplies from diapers and toilet paper to medicine and coffee. Community leaders mobilized to ensure that the elderly in their compounds were cared for.

My best friend in Shanghai told me about a couple in their 90's living on the first floor of his building, whom he met by chance and struck up a conversation. Realizing that they had no idea how to buy food using mobile phones and WeChat, he ordered some extra supplies and delivered a care package to them. The old lady responded a day later, thanking him with a 6-page letter:

A crisis is terrible for productivity

I would have done absolutely nothing during the lockdown if I could. Fortunately, I had a young daughter to take care of at home and a couple of students who were applying early. These kept me at least somewhat productive.

Now I understand why western economies and governments were so severely impacted by the early months of the pandemic. Canada immigration had something like 18 months' worth of visa application backlogs before the government finally decided to address the issue this January.

On a personal note, my personal improvement journey suffered. I was unable to control my diet, and I put on approximately 3kg as a result. I also stopped running or using the parallel bars. I stopped writing. And my plans for resuming my computer science studies (starting from March) went out the window.

A smart rabbit has three burrows

This statement, a translation of an old Chinese proverb, is again borrowed from Ray Dalio. Thinking back to the beginning of the crisis, I probably could have left Shanghai (just as I did when COVID swept China for the first time in January 2020). However, my family could not leave, so I stayed.

Having a solid plan B (and even a plan C) is priceless during times of chaos and upheaval, though they might seem inconsequential in times of peace. Countless people have died or been displaced as a result of crises throughout history, but many times more people survived and eventually prospered as the crises were resolved.

Our planet has survived multiple extinction events. On a smaller scale, mankind has survived famine, disease, and war while marching inexorably towards better standards of living enabled by technological advances.

In short, this lockdown has strengthened my faith in people, and made me realize that we as a species is extremely resilient. That said, my recent experiences have also further strengthened my resolve to relocate my family to Vancouver as soon as possible.

What would I do differently next time, if faced with a major crisis? The best answer is probably: "To expect the worst and escape early if possible." Barring that, I suppose we can only find ways to remain productive and to work with others, and pray that the worst will not come to pass.